NEW YORK JETS (2-2) at ATLANTA FALCONS (1-3)
2013-10-08
The Falcons look to get back on track when the Jets come to town on Monday night.
Atlanta was unable to beat the Patriots Sunday night, losing 30-23 and falling to 1-3 on the year. The Jets also came away empty-handed in Week 4, as they were destroyed on the road against the Titans, 38-13. Since 1995, the Falcons are 3-1 (SU and ATS) against the Jets producing double-digit wins in each home meeting. The last matchup between these teams was a 10-7 win-and-cover in favor of the Falcons in December 2009 in New Jersey. Both teams are staring at negative trends for this game. Over the past two seasons, the Jets are 0-8 ATS off of 1 or more overs in a row, and are also 31-55 ATS (36percent) off of a road loss since 1992. Atlanta, however, is 15-31 ATS (33percent) in home games after playing a game at home since 1992 and is 3-17 ATS (15percent) after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games during that span. The Jets are going to be without top WR Santonio Holmes (hamstring), while No. 2 WR Stephen Hill is doubtful with a concussion suffered last week. The Falcons must continue to run without their star RB Steven Jackson, who is out for another two weeks with a hamstring injury.
The Jets are now 2-2 SU (3-1 ATS) after suffering a beatdown against the Titans in which Jake Locker threw all over their defense before going down with a hip injury. New York rookie QB Geno Smith followed up his best performance of the year with a subpar outing, as he went 23-of-34 for 289 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. In his two road games, Smith has thrown 1 TD and 5 INT. Smith also lost two fumbles in the game, including a truly bone-headed one where he tried to put the ball behind his own back to avoid a pass rusher. RB Bilal Powell played well in the game for New York, rushing for 66 yards on 14 carries while also catching three passes for 42 yards. After gaining just 3.1 YPC in his first two games, Powell has averaged a stellar 5.2 YPC over his past two contests. TE Kellen Winslow was the Jets leader in the receiving game with six catches for 73 yards, and he will likely be Smith's top target again with the injuries to WRs Santonio Holmes and. New Yorks defense struggled to stop the Titans, but the offense didnt help them by giving the Titans good field position all game. The Jets D has really played well all season, leading the NFL with 14 first downs per game allowed and placing second in the league in total defense (283 total YPG, 4.3 yards per play allowed) and yards per carry (3.0 YPC). But it all starts with Smith having to play mistake-free football if the Jets are to have a chance to keep this game close against the Falcons.
Atlanta nearly pulled out an amazing win on Sunday night, trailing 30-13 with less than five minutes to play and giving itself a chance to tie the game when a fourth down pass from the Patriots 10-yard-line fell incomplete. Falcons QB Matt Ryan threw plenty of passes in this game trying to bring his team back from a large deficit, as he went 34-for-54 for 421 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. He now has 1,330 passing yards (7.7 YPA), 8 TD and 3 INT on the year and will be asked to throw a lot without top RB Steven Jackson and due to the Jets' run defense being so difficult to gain yards on. TE Tony Gonzalez finally turned in the performance Atlanta fans have been waiting for with 12 receptions for 149 yards and 2 TD versus New England. He entered the game with just 11 catches for 93 yards and 1 TD in his first three games combined. WR Julio Jones had 108 yards on six catches in last week's loss, but outside of one 49-yard play, Patriots CB Aqib Talib did a pretty good job shutting the superstar down. Jones leads the NFL with 481 receiving yards, including 218 yards after catch (2nd in league), but WR Roddy White (high ankle sprain) is getting healthier each week and was able to play on 74 of 76 offensive snaps last Sunday. With six straight seasons of 80+ catches and 1,150+ yards, White is expected to give this offense another boost. Where the Falcons really struggled in Week 4 was in the running game where they got just 58 yards combined from RBs Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling on 15 carries (3.9 YPC). For the season, Atlanta ranks 23rd in the NFL in rushing offense (82 YPG), despite a strong 4.4 yards per carry (11th in league). Defensively, the Falcons have done an excellent job stopping the run (92 YPG, 6th in NFL), but have been burned for 301 passing YPG (7th-most in league). That is a big reason why opponents have 6.1 yards per play against them, the fourth-most in the NFL. Injuries to CB Asante Samuel (thigh) and LB Akeem Dent (ankle) are not helping the cause. Both players are listed as questionable for Monday night.
Every NFL betting man wonders, Can Tebow do it in the NFL? It didn’t take long for the football world to see where he landed, Tim Tebow’s first round draft selection by the Denver Broncos leaves many professionals scratching their heads and many fans saying, “I told you so.” The professionals tend to forget that behind the ridiculous amount of press there exists a legacy to back up Tebow’s hype, you do not become the first underclassman to win the Heisman Trophy on smoke and mirror, Tebow has massive talent.
In the pros, Tebow is going to have to adjust his game. His unpredictable nature (will he throw or do it all himself?) made him a force to be reckoned with. In his new house that is a dangerous choice with defenders who triple your size. This man has accuracy, a hell of an arm (9286 passing yards), is an amazing decision maker, and has the ability to run if necessary.
If he can gel the team, get them to trust him, there is no reason he can’t be successful. The Broncos defense stepped it up last year, if they rally behind this quarterback, his crazy antics just might work. Everyone laughed at Miami for the wildcat, but sometimes when you bring a little bit of college to the pros it can have a great effect. With that said the Broncos are going to be a fascinating team to bet on in 2010, and if you are an NFL bettor there is no better place to make those bets than www.sportsbook.com where everybody bets.
All that being said, what was Coach McDaniels thinking? Practically no one believes Tebow is ready to start in the big time, so why waste your high draft pick on Tebow? The answer must be leadership. Since the firing of Shanahan, the unceremonious, pouty departure of Jay Cutler, and the spectacular unraveling of a 6-0 start last season, McDaniels needs a leader. That is something you cannot measure with statistics or size.
No matter what you personally think of Tebow, I hate him for being a Gator, you have to respect what he can do to unite a team. The Broncos have been left leaderless for years. Shanahan was given too much power running the offense and the defense; he lost points with the players. Cutler was their touchstone and he abandoned them. All they had was Marshall and he was toast by the end of the season, not to mention gone now too. They need someone to bring them together. McDaniels lost their trust once the losing began and he knows he can only lead the team if they are all on his side. Tebow brings loyalty wherever he goes.
While the rest of the commentaries will cover statistics and all the reasons Tim Tebow should have been a third round pick at best, I say this is an inspired move to remind people that winning comes from being a team. Now, the question remains, will seasoned pro players be willing to take their cues from a young punk? They have been hurting for so long, ripped apart by loosing their motivation, I think they are ready for Tebow’s brand of camaraderie. Those players are ready to bet on Tim Tebow leading them to the playoffs.
You can watch it across the sports board, teams that fall apart because all of their eggs lie with one player. Look at the Lakers right now, heck, look at the 49ers for YEARS. The amazing thing about Tim Tebow is that no matter how much he becomes the star or leader, he is ultimately a team player with trust in everyone around him. When you build a team like that, you are slated to be the underdog with enough heart to come through.
What does all this mean to the Denver Broncos next season? I think it means they are going to cover a lot of spreads. The Broncos will be underdogs often according to the experts, but Tebow is a master at finding a way to win, stats or no stats. Will Tebow lead the league in passing? No. But he will win games, and he will make a lot of savvy NFL Bettors very happy next year.